Hey!

Hey you!

…

YEA YOU!

check it: inflatR.com

My new site.
Still raw – soliciting for feedback.

SO GIVE FEEDBACK.

kthxbai.

Guten tag, all.

I just had an awesome weekend.  I attended San Francisco Science Hack Day  and it was awesome!  It was two full days, so let me lay it out for you:

about me: programming & science n00b
mission: to make & hack things with SCIENCE
vision: to hack data from Switzerland’s Large Hadron Collider for better accessibility and understanding, esp for enthusiasts but n00bs like me.

results:

• my knowledge of particle physics went from 0 to … some? probably 1 if it’s on a scale of …100.
• crash course in python and javascript programming
• +5lbs from bountiful free food and alcohol
• Increased tolerance to caffeine
• I made THIS!
• The group collectively put THIS website together!
• 10 GBs of LHC data, out of the gazillion terabytes of data both available & unavailable to the “public” (I say with quotes because not exactly sure where I could even get the publicly released data…)

Note: If you’re interested in the source code, it can be found on GitHub under mattbellis.

So, what those two graphs mean that I put together is [I THINK, IF I REMEMBER CORRECTLY] a reflection of two different ways to calculate mass of muons. Muons produce when two protons collide together, along with other particles, including mesons. The second graph (using Einstein’s equations/special relativity), you can see a second “hump”, signaling that there actually is a second meson existing that the first graph didn’t show.

All ‘n all, thanks to my intro course to computer science, I was able to have somewhat of an understanding of what was going on, as well as built upon my skills (especially for my final project coming up!).   All I have to say for those n00bs to any new skill: Dive right in.  That’s the best, most fun way to learn!

♠

Other hacks that were done over the weekend here.

Good morning folks!  yes, it’s been a while, I know.

Just a bit of an update for my very few readers .  I’ve just relocated to the San Fran bay area for the significant other.  So far, I’m loving it!  So much to do here, great weather, I can’t complain.

I’ve also started taking a computer science class through Harvard.  Boy, am I loving it!!  Wrote my first few simple programs in C this week.  It’s really funny how much one can focus with the task at hand is so fun.  Doing these problem sets for the class remind me of some math courses I took a while back.  I’d be excited to get started on homework.  I’m thinking this won’t be my last compsci course.

’til next time, folks!

In reflecting upon my generation, it seems like a lot of young adults have a mild, untreatable, nature-induced A.D.D.

I sit here at work begging to be distracted.  At my former job, I’d sit in a single room with 4 other people around my age, no cubical, just a big desk, and TVs blaring 3 different news/financial channels.  It was awesome!  If I needed to focus, I’d tune out everyone; if I needed a little break, I’d watch Squawk on the Street for 5 minutes; if I needed help, I’d pick up my head and ask my neighbors.  In college, I’d always study in my sorority lounge and/or with CNBC on.  It’s how I learned to do things.

A complete 180° at my current job.  I absolutely hate it when it’s quiet.  I read some news (or blog…) while concurrently keying in some forecasting assumptions.  I fear that my employer will think that I’m not being productive, when in fact this is the only way I can be productive!  Maybe my employer will think that I’m not “present” at work when I have my phone at my desk.

I’ve grown up not with a silver spoon in my mouth but a computer always at my finger tips (thanks, Dad!).  As the tech scene comes up with new ways to become even more connected to the world around us, it’s now becoming a part of me, how I work, how I need to do things.  I’m certain others share this sentiment.

This is a change in generations.  If I’m going to be chained to a desk, I will work at the desired speed and productivity level to please my employer, but under the conditions that I know I can focus: with distractions.  I hope that employers in the future will be tolerant of the everyone’s-a-blogger-now-a-days worker-bee.

I had the interesting experience of attending a Seattle tech talk with Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg. Unfortunately I was too scared to ask him if he felt $70 billion was a fair value for the FB IPO estimate, or if he needed any analysts to help him justify such a number.

But what I though was interesting that he said, beyond all that geeky coding and infrastructure talk, was that he believes the rate of people “sharing” stuff via Facebook will double each year, so within 5 years people will be sharing 32x as many things compared to today.

Is that even possible? ~1024 things/day being shared/liked/commented. We’d have to be FBing nearly every minute.

What I think is more accurate is an exponential growth of a person sharing, then as one gets older, the activity tapers, slows down, and maybe even fall to zero/very rare. What would be important would be to look at that age where exponential growth happens and see how that is growing.

Just quick thoughts post-talk. I enjoyed it, plus the free pizza & booze. Although I wish I could have gotten some free swag…

Great post regarding perspective with monetary policy (applicable elsewhere in life) from Worthwhile Canadian Initiative.

Excerpt/Preview:

“Saving” is a “doing nothing” concept. When we save, we are doing nothing with our income. When desired saving increases, people want to do even more nothing. But there are 1,001 different ways of doing “nothing”. And it matters which one you do.

1) Why doesn’t the Fed, instead of paying interest on the reserves that banks hold at the Fed, require the banks to pay interest to hold money at the Fed?  Wouldn’t that increase money velocity, i.e. entice banks to lend money so they earn interest, rather than lose money to pay interest?  That might decrease lending standards, but if lending standards were kept at the same stringent level, perhaps banks would allow for some [responsible] financial innovation.

2) How can we manage the global economy so it does not hinder on the local economy of a small country?  I’m calling out Greece here.  Just stepping back and thinking – we do not have a robust global & national economy if the fate of Greece greatly affects financial markets (which in turn affects banks, who will not lend to businesses because of the weary financial markets, and then affects the unemployed, where businesses have no access to money to grow and employ).

Just some thoughts

Has there been any other species that has declined in energy levels and physical productivity like the humans?  Is there any other animal that was once very active in its environment, that now can capture its food with simply keying in a credit card and watching the progress meter go by as it’s being delivered?

This thought provoked by the following blog: Overcoming Bias.

Has anyone else heard of BitCoin, and the incredible inflation it has seen?

This dude has put all his money into BitCoin – not smart, I would say.  Especially when news like a run on BitCoin hits. (If you have no clue on what BitCoin is, read.)

So while I laugh at the guy who invested all his money that is now gone, I reflect back on a conversation I had with a friend a few years ago.  Can we use this virtual currency to study monetary economics?  BitCoin has the potential to provide us with an interesting avenue to understand another type of currency.

But what I am imagining more is looking at virtual worlds and video games (disclaimer: I have no direct experience with video games) to build scenarios to “test” on live people interacting with the world/game.  Currently, there are trading simulators that follow the market where one can see how his/her virtual portfolio would fair in real life.  Add that aspect to a virtual economy and see how quantitative easing programs could affect it.

Just an idea.

[side step the fact that I haven't been blogging in a while]

Folks – for those of you that are unconvinced of Bernanke et al’s policies, efforts and commentary, I offer you Nobel Laureate Robert Lucas’ presentation made at UWashington a few weeks ago (I would have attended myself, but I was more engrossed in a Seattle Grunge-themed yoga class).

For the too long, didn’t read folks out there – Dr. Lucas compares the depression in the 1930s, while recognizing other recessions are not that comparable, to the recession we are currently experiencing.  While there are differences in the causes and prolongation of the two recessions, he notes that a big factor in both is the banking system, and the Fed’s monetary policies.  To note:

•In 1930, the Federal Reserve stood by and watched as spending and production declined

•In 2008, the Federal Reserve did exactly the opposite

•In August, 2008, there were $45 billion of reserves in the banking system

•By  the end of  the year, there were $821 b.

•The Fed acted boldly as lender of last resort, just as it should have done in 1930s, but failed to do

•Financial panic was over by end of 2008

•Too late to prevent deep spending declines in GDP in 2008-4 and •2009-1

•But there is a world of difference between two quarters of production declines and four years

He explains that the Fed did not do anything to help bank runs and the flow of currency in the 1930s, while the current Fed did the exact opposite.  The US has not technically been in recession since September 2009 (BEA) with [a seemingly shaky trend of] positive production, although it may feel like it.  Historically, job growth as always lagged after the end of recessions.  With Dr. Lucas’ comments, without the help of the Fed, we could very well still be experiencing decline in GDP/prolonged recession.